A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
