Why Is The Current American Government Shutdown Different (as well as More Intractable)?
Government closures are a repeat element of US politics – but the current situation appears especially difficult to resolve due to shifting political forces along with bad blood among the two parties.
Certain federal operations are temporarily suspended, and about 750,000 people likely to be placed on unpaid leave as both political parties can't agree regarding budget legislation.
Votes aimed at ending the impasse have repeatedly failed, and it is hard to see a clear resolution path in this instance as both parties – including the nation's leader – perceive advantages in digging in.
These are the four ways in which things feel different currently.
First, For Democrats, it's about Trump – not just healthcare
Democratic supporters has been demanding for months that their party adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Currently Democratic leaders have an opportunity to demonstrate their responsiveness.
Earlier this year, the Senate's top Democrat faced strong criticism for helping pass a Republican spending bill and averting a shutdown in the spring. This time he's digging in.
This is a chance for Democrats to demonstrate their ability to reclaim some control from a presidency that has moved aggressively with determined action.
Refusing to back the Republican spending plan comes with political risk as citizens generally may become impatient as the dispute drags on and consequences begin to mount.
Democratic representatives are using the budget standoff to put a spotlight on expiring health insurance subsidies together with GOP-backed federal health program reductions for the poor, both facing public opposition.
They are also trying to restrict the President's use of his executive powers to rescind or withhold money approved by Congress, a practice demonstrated with foreign aid and various federal programs.
Second, For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The President along with a senior aide have made little secret their perspective that they perceive an opening to advance further reductions to the federal workforce that have featured the current presidential term so far.
The nation's leader personally stated recently that the shutdown had afforded him a "unique chance", adding he intended to reduce funding for "opposition-supported departments".
Administration officials said it would be left with the "unenviable task" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations if the shutdown continued. An administration spokesperson said this was just "fiscal sanity".
The scope of the potential lay-offs is still uncertain, but the White House have been consulting with the Office of Management and Budget, the budgeting office, under the leadership of the administration's budget director.
The budget director has previously declared the halting of government financial support for Democratic-run parts the opposition party, such as NYC and Illinois' largest city.
3. There's little trust between both parties
Whereas past government closures have been characterised by late-night talks between the two parties aimed at restoring government services running again, currently there seems little of the same spirit of collaboration this time.
Instead, there is rancour. Political tensions persisted recently, as both sides exchanging accusations for causing the impasse.
House Speaker from the majority party, charged opposition members with insufficient commitment toward resolution, and holding out during discussions "to get political cover".
Meanwhile, the opposition's chief levelled the same accusation at the other side, saying that a Republican promise regarding health funding talks after operations resume can not be taken seriously.
The President himself has inflamed the situation by posting a controversial AI-generated image of the Senate leader and the top Democrat in the House, where the legislator is depicted with a large Mexican-style sombrero and facial hair.
The representative with party colleagues called this racist, a characterization rejected by the administration's second-in-command.
4. The US economy is fragile
Experts project approximately two-fifths of the federal workforce – over 800,000 workers – to face furlough due to the government closure.
This will reduce consumer expenditure – and also have wider ramifications, as environmental permitting, patent approvals, payments to contractors and other kinds of federal operations connected to commercial interests comes to a halt.
The closure additionally introduces new uncertainty into an economy already being roiled from multiple factors including tariffs, earlier cuts to government spending, immigration raids and artificial intelligence.
Economic forecasters project potential reduction of as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth weekly during the closure.
But the economy typically recoups most of that lost activity after a shutdown ends, as it would after disruption after major environmental events.
That could be one reason why financial markets has appeared largely unfazed to the ongoing impasse.
On the other hand, experts indicate should administration officials implement his threat of mass firings, economic harm might become extended in duration.
